The Patriots had a major win last Sunday over the LA Chargers. All of the team was part of this win. Belichick made an unconventional choice after he won the coin toss. The Patriots, surprised by being receivers, dominated the first half of the first quarter and put their team on the scoreboard early. The defense held back the Chargers, and the first half ended with a score of 35-7 for the Patriots. In spite of the Patriots’ final victory at 41-28, the news stories this week have focused on the usual questions: Is Tom Brady at the end of his career? Is the Patriots’ Dynasty over? Even though Gronkowski/Edeleman said on Sunday evening in the post-game interview that the team took a couple of hours off before they went back to work for the next game, many of the post-game interviews showed that the team had gone straight back to work as players talked about the Patriots’ position as underdogs in the upcoming game against the Chiefs. Much of this week has focused, like last week, on the odds of the Patriots losing. The Patriots have made it clear that if they can’t “ignore the noise,” and they will use the noise as motivation, but the bigger question is why is there so much attention to the possible defeat of the Patriots? Is this attention based on analysis of the team and the players’ performance? And are these the best or the only measures of a team’s success? What do we know about how ready the Patriots are for this game and whether they can win?
First, let’s look at the Patriot’s offensive game. Quarterback to quarterback the game is very close and has many people already on the edge of their seats. Tom Brady, senior quarterback and age 41, is matched up against Patrick Mahomes, age 23 and an explosive talent. These two are deadlocked, making for a major competition and an exciting game. Brady’s experience, record, his history of wins with the Patriots are pitched directly against Mahomes age and talent, this game seems to have even more importance than a usual AFC championship.
The rest of the Patriots’ offensive team also looks very strong going into this game, but the Chiefs also have a very strong offensive team. James White, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowki looked in great form during last week’s play off game, and sports writer, Ryan Spagnoli believes that a strong performance from all three of these players need to be at the top of their game to win on Sunday. There were some worries that Sony Michel, the rookie, would be affected by nerves in his first play off, but he more than rose to the occasion, rushing 129 yards and scoring 3 touchdowns. The challenges for the Patriots offensive line is that, as Spagnoli points out, the Chiefs “have figured out a way to slow New England top offensive weapons a bit in the past, so coming up with a gameplay to get them going early is crucial for the Patriots this Sunday.” The Patriots, in other words, need to do this week exactly what they did last week against the Chargers.
Next, let’s look at the strength of the defense. The Patriots’ defense was weak last season, and they needed to improve their defense to be competitive this year. In the patriots.com website from August, 2018, there are four reasons given to “hope that 2018 is better”: 1. Hightower is back from his injuries. He is a player who can make plays when it really counts. 2. Stephen Gilmore, a talented corner, has been on the team long enough to find his place and be effective 3. The Patriots have added players so that they can improve their pass rush: Adrian Clayborn, Trey Flowers, Dietrich Wise, Jr. and Derek Rivers. 4. The Patriots have increased the depth of their talent. As Kyle Van Noy, linebacker, has said, the Patriots have “some of the best secondary defense in the league. They don’t get noticed enough. “Van Noy identifies some of these players: Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Stephen Gilmore. Overall, the Patriots’ defense team’s performance this fall was mixed, but they did show that they could perform under pressure, especially at the playoff game against the Chargers. At the same time, their defensive team is seen as more balanced than the Chief’s. The Patriots’ defensive team is looking the best it has this year, and that is a good place to be just before this game.
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External factors may also play a role in who wins. In this match up, it has been looking like weather could be a major factor because of reports of arctic cold, but as the game day approaches, it looks like temperatures will be more moderate, ranging in the twenties to low thirties. This still could give some advantage to the Patriots since Brady has a win-loss record of 24-4 when the temperature is below 30 degrees. Neither team has a significant advantage based on team injuries. Berry, playing for the Chiefs, has been out with an injury, but he has recently been at practices and is expected to play this weekend. One significant advantage that the Chiefs have over the Patriots is that the game will be played on their home turf. Arrowhead stadium is known to have a major noise advantage for the home team, and the Patriots have a bad track record for away games. In addition, the Patriots had a tough defeat against the Chiefs at Arrowhead in 2014. This game started the first rumors that Brady and the Patriots were deteriorating and that Brady might be thinking of retiring. In his recent post game interview, Brady described the game as “a crappy loss.” The Patriots have also had a weak record at winning games away from Foxborough, and they will have to overcome that to win. One piece of good news here is that the Chiefs, in spite of their home game advantage, have been beaten at Arrowhead–by the Chargers.
Internal factors like team motivation also affect the Patriots and may be the key to this game. Belichick’s coaching success is based on hiring talented players, creating skillful plays, studying the strengths and weaknesses of opposing teams, and managing and adapting the team that he has. Boston Sports.com reports: “No team in the NFL adapts as well to its needs like the New England Patriots, a matter we’ve come accustomed to over the past 18 years with Belichick.” Belichick also has a powerful calm and focus–that drives many of his opponents crazy, but keeps his team focused and preparing for a win right up to the minute the game starts. He has created a team culture that keeps his ready and able to adapt to whatever they need to do to win. In last week’s game, Gronkowski turned the spotlight over to Michel to carry the ball and worked as a master to block for him. This week, expect the same kind of teamwork as the Patriot’s try to find the way to defeat the Chiefs.
Finally, let’s look at how the Patriots are dealing with the unusual position of being the underdog. As a team, the players used the postgame interviews with the Chargers to let everyone know that they have been hearing all the rumors that, as Brady put it, “they suck…and can’t win any games.” As a team, they have turned their new position into a strategy to win against the odds. Edeleman’s “Bet Against Me” t-shirt shows just how strong their determination to shake off their critics is. Everyone knows just how closely these teams are matched. The Patriots are not trying to run from their position as underdogs–they are going to try win from it. The Patriots are going into this game to try to get to another Super Bowl. They have been to eight and won five. If they go to the Super Bowl this year, it would be their third straight and fourth in five years. Not a bad record for underdogs–and they are doing their best to try to beat it.
Pats The Reliable 